Piracy off the coast of Somalia shows no signs of going away any time soon - in part because nobody can apparently be bothered to take any effective measures against them. I was discussing the recent news reports about the pirates last week with a friend, and we came to the conclusion that “Somali piracy” is an ideal subject for fledgling analysts to study - both because it’s a fairly small, fairly well-defined microcosm, and so can be examined in something of a vacuum, as it were, but also because it’s hard to escape the conclusion that there’s a very real intelligence shortage surrounding the matter… at least where open sources are concerned.

Indeed, if you start looking at the whole situation, you’re left with nothing but unanswered - and possibly unanswerable - questions - questions the media, and officials, seem reluctant to pursue. If nothing else, it highlights just how little public information there really is about the whole subject. As an example, here are more than two-dozen questions that spring to mind:
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Back in July, I wrote about an implementation of the TOR router that can be used from pretty much anywhere you have internet access. At the time, I wrote that I was having problems getting Privoxy to work. I figured out the problem a few days later, but never got around to mentioning it. I’ve been using Tor and Privoxy via this method for three months, so I thought I’d provide some updates on what I’ve learned.
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The intelligence community (IC) can’t agree on what intelligence is or isn’t, but they generally agree that analysis is a process that can be taught. Right now, it’s fashionable to emphasize the nearly endless number of trendy “though processes” that people have dreamed up. Apparently - or so the theory goes - the more one becomes aware of thought itself, and the more one thinks about thinking, the better one becomes at analysis. Personally, I think this is a dangerous policy, because - from my perspective - the emphasis seems to be on codifying thinking strategies as a means to supporting and adding legitimacy and credibility to analytic products. Given my admitted skepticism about some of these trendy thought processes, I can’t help but feel that analysts are being prepped to “dazzle with bullshit”, if you will. “How did you come by these estimates?” “Through a collaborative process of six-hat, mind-mapped systems analysis.” “Wow. Okay, good job!”

I know it’s a necessary evil we all have to live with, but I can’t help but feel that many of the skills being taught have more value for playing politics than they do for actual analysis.
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Amid reports today that an American radar system is being set up in Israel, it’s hard not to suspect that there’s more to the story than meets the eye. The Israeli news, like Haaretz, are describing the system as being “meant to augment Israel’s defenses against Iranian ground-to-ground missiles”. The BBC, likewise, emphasizes the added protection Israel receives from Iranian missiles.

I don’t want to sound too cynical, but I think Israel’s enhanced protection is just, frankly, a lucky side benefit of the system’s real purpose, and is being “spun” to make the installation more palatable to the Israeli public. Why? Well, it all has to do with the radar system itself…
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The situation in Somalia involving a Ukrainian freighter loaded with tanks and other weapons seized by pirates last week is continuing to develop in interesting ways; the U.S. Navy presence seems to be growing - as the Voice of America reports, there are now an “unspecified number” of both destroyers and cruisers on site. My educated guess is that that “unspecified number” is “one of each” - the destroyer “USS Howard” (DDG 83) and the cruiser “USS Bunker Hill” (CG-52), which is known to be a part of Combined Task Force 150. At the same time, at least one Russian warship is headed to the area, according to reports - the frigate Neustrashimy.

An English-language television interview with one of the captured crewmembers can be seen below; the footage of pirates appears to be from encounters earlier this year. Of particular interest to me is the pirate seen wielding a samurai sword: